Treasury Wine Estates investor day meets expectations as Americas review flagged

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares rose 9.7% after the company’s investor day landed broadly in line with market expectations, with Citi noting no downgrade to near-term earnings guidance and slightly stronger longer-term margin targets.

Citi analyst Sam Teeger said FY26 earnings before interest and tax guidance of $480 million to $490 million was broadly consistent with consensus forecasts, while FY27 EBIT was expected to be at least flat on FY26.

Teeger said the key signal for investors was Treasury Wine’s decision to launch a strategic and operational review of its Americas business.

Citi expects the review to be received positively, given the underlying strength of the company’s brands in the region despite ongoing inventory and capacity challenges.

Treasury Wine also outlined a longer-term target to lift EBIT margins to 25% or more, ahead of current consensus expectations for around 23% by FY30.

Citi said leverage was expected to peak at 2.9 times in FY26 before easing in later periods.

The broker also noted that increased marketing investment from FY28 was intended to support Treasury Wine’s core luxury “power brands”.