{"blocks":[{"type":"list","data":{"style":"unordered","items":["FTSE 100 down 23 at 10,356","US blue-chips marginally lower ","Prediction markets see more Iran pain","Sainsbury downgraded by Goldman","Brent rises 2% to $107"]}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"4:50pm: FTSE 100 closes lower","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"London’s FTSE 100 Index closed lower on Monday, slipping 0.56% to 10,321, as early geopolitical optimism gave way to a more cautious tone across equity markets."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The benchmark struggled to build on recent gains, with traders weighing ceasefire-related sentiment against persistently elevated oil prices, a firmer sterling, and signs that the index’s strong year-to-date performance had left it vulnerable to profit-taking. Market participants described the session as a “quality-of-rally” issue, where improving headlines failed to translate into broad-based buying support."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Energy names initially found support from higher crude prices, but the narrative shifted later in the session as investors increasingly interpreted stronger oil as a macroeconomic headwind rather than a straightforward earnings tailwind. That reassessment limited the sector’s ability to anchor the broader index."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Overall, breadth remained subdued, with leadership concentrated in select defensives and growth-linked names, while more crowded and downgrade-sensitive stocks came under pressure."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Patrick Munnelly, Partner, Market Strategy at Tickmill Group, said the move reflected a loss of momentum rather than a decisive reversal. “Monday’s FTSE price action was not a full retreat, but it was a clear loss of momentum — a market rotating away from geopolitical hedges, rewarding visible growth and punishing crowded or downgrade-sensitive names.\""}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"3.05pm: Quiet start on Wall Street","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"UK blue-chips are still below the gain line in afternoon trading as markets weigh a reported Iranian proposal to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz against fresh uncertainty in the artificial intelligence sector following a significant shift in the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Wall Street opened on mixed footing, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 19 points, the S&P 500 hovering just below flat, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 74 points."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Iran has submitted a new proposal to Washington to reopen the Hormuz waterway and end the conflict, but with nuclear negotiations deferred to a later stage, according to Axios, a condition that sits awkwardly with the White House's stated red lines over Tehran's atomic programme."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Traffic through the strait remained near zero on Monday morning, keeping Brent crude above $100 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $96, with supply restrictions across global shipping lanes continuing to threaten inflationary pressure across a wide range of industries."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Microsoft shares fell after the software giant confirmed it would no longer hold exclusive access to OpenAI's model lineup, with a revenue-sharing agreement between the two companies also coming to an end, marking a significant reconfiguration of one of the most closely watched partnerships in technology."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The week ahead is among the most consequential of the earnings season, with results due from the majority of the Magnificent Seven megacap technology companies, each scrutinised for evidence of progress on artificial intelligence investment and returns."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with rates widely expected to remain on hold as the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict cloud the outlook."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The meeting is expected to be the penultimate one chaired by Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh takes over, with Warsh's Senate confirmation vote now approaching."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"1.44pm: Back in red","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Footsie finds itself back in the red ahead of the US open on subdued traded volume and the Iran stand-off weighing on market sentiment."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Elsewhere, a leading bank reckons investors should continue using geopolitically driven market weakness as a buying opportunity."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"According to JP Morgan's equity strategy team, conditions that argue against a prolonged conflict-driven sell-off remain firmly in place."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank's strategist, Mislav Matejka, who called in March for investors to add on dips following the initial derisking phase, says central bank flexibility and supportive earnings momentum distinguish the current environment sharply from 2022, when rising rates compounded equity market pain."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"With the MSCI World index having staged a V-shaped rebound, JP Morgan acknowledges the risk of adverse geopolitical headlines causing further bouts of volatility, but argues that military, political and economic constraints all limit the likelihood of a prolonged confrontation."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The more pressing question, in the bank's view, is over market leadership heading into the summer."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"JPM does not expect a repeat of last year's pattern, when Nvidia rallied 120% in the six months following the Liberation Day moves and Magnificent Seven technology stocks dominated returns, constrained by tariff headwinds and earnings disappointments in China and Europe."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"12.36: Wall Street set for subdued start","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The FTSE 100 has clawed back early losses to trade up 32 points in early afternoon trading, as markets steadied despite stalled Iran peace talks and fresh Strait of Hormuz tensions pushing oil prices sharply higher."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Wall Street futures were little changed, with S&P 500 futures hovering near the flatline, Nasdaq-100 futures edging 0.2% higher, and Dow futures slipping almost 60 points as investors weighed geopolitical risk against a packed corporate calendar."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Donald Trump abandoned plans to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to in-person ceasefire talks at the weekend, saying negotiations could happen by phone, while Iran's foreign ministry confirmed no meeting is currently scheduled."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then boarded two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which a significant share of global crude flows, sending West Texas Intermediate up 2% to above $96 a barrel and Brent crude past $107."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"An Axios report that Iran has submitted a new proposal for reopening the strait offered some relief, with Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli saying the conflict remains on a path of de-escalation."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Attention now turns to one of the most consequential weeks of the corporate calendar, with five of the Magnificent Seven technology companies due to report results alongside a Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday, which may prove to be Jerome Powell's last as chair before Kevin Warsh takes over in May, following the Justice Department's decision to drop its criminal probe into Powell."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"11.11am: Prediction markets suggest weeks more Iran pain","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Polymarket, the prediction market platform, is pricing just a 31% chance of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by the end of May, rising to 48% by the end of June, signalling that traders expect Persian Gulf oil disruption to persist for weeks and potentially months yet."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"With no credible prospect of a near-term breakthrough, particularly after Donald Trump pulled peace envoys from negotiations, the market is effectively telling oil traders to brace for a prolonged supply shock."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Brent crude has already risen 2.3% to almost $108 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing the loss of an estimated 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf production and record drawdowns of global oil inventories."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The longer the disruption runs into May and June, the more stubbornly elevated energy prices will feed into global inflation, complicating the task facing central banks attempting to bring price growth under control."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman sets out the stakes clearly: in a severely adverse scenario, with Gulf exports failing to normalise until end-July and capacity suffering lasting damage, Brent could average nearly $120 in the fourth quarter."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Even its base case, assuming Gulf exports recover by end-June, leaves Brent at $90, a level that offers little comfort to policymakers or consumers facing another summer of high energy costs."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"10.01am: Brent jumps 2.3% as peace hopes fade"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Brent crude has risen 2.3% to almost $108 a barrel after Donald Trump cancelled a trip for Pakistan for peace envoys over the weekend, dimming hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict disrupting Middle Eastern oil supplies."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel, up from an earlier projection of $80, citing lower Persian Gulf production and a slower-than-expected recovery in regional output."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank now estimates that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production has been lost, triggering a record drawdown of global oil inventories of 11 to 12 million barrels a day this month."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"US crude is forecast to average $83 a barrel in the October-to-December period, up from a previous estimate of $75."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman attributes the revision to a later assumed normalisation in Gulf exports, pushing its timeline back to end-June from mid-May, alongside a slower production recovery."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank warns that global oil demand is expected to fall year-on-year by 1.7 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 and by 0.1 million barrels a day across the full year, as higher refined product prices weigh on consumption."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman sets out three scenarios for how the crisis could develop."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In an adverse case, Brent would average just over $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming Gulf exports normalise only by end-July."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"A severely adverse scenario, in which Gulf exports do not recover until end-July and Persian Gulf capacity suffers a persistent reduction of 2.5 million barrels a day, would push Brent to nearly $120."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In a benign scenario, with Gulf exports normalising by mid-June and no lasting capacity damage, Brent would settle at just under $80."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman had trimmed its oil price outlook earlier this month following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, but has now reversed course as the conflict shows no sign of resolution."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The FTSE 100, meanwhile, dragged itself out of the red to trade 5 points higher at 10,383.84."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Sainsbury's, the supermarket chain, was the index's top faller in early trading after Goldman cut its rating on the stock from buy to sell, lowering its share price target to 335p from 390p; shares fell 3.4% to 333p."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"9.07am: Sainsbury downgraded","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman Sachs has downgraded Sainsbury to 'sell' from buy and cut its price target to 335p from 390p, sending shares in the UK's second-largest supermarket group down 3%."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank warned of a more challenging outlook driven by weakening consumer spending and intensifying competition in non-food retail."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"While Sainsbury's full-year results met Goldman's expectations, with grocery sales up 5.2% and a 3% retail margin, the bank said the path ahead looked materially harder."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman's UK household consumption growth forecast has been cut to just 0.6% year-on-year, the weakest reading since 2009, excluding the pandemic, while April consumer confidence data from GfK showed rising intentions to save."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank forecasts broadly flat retail operating profit in the coming year, with grocery growth offset by a 2% decline in like-for-like sales at Argos, Sainsbury's general merchandise arm, against growth of 1% in the prior year."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Goldman also flagged the rapid emergence of Chinese marketplace Joybuy as a competitive threat, noting it had already accumulated 300,000 active users in March."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The bank cut its 2027 and 2028 operating profit forecasts by 4% and 6% respectively, with its new 335p target implying around 3% downside against a sector average upside of 14%."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"8.15am: Quiet start","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"As expected, UK blue-chips got off to a sluggish start, falling around 3 points to 10,376.19 in the opening 15 minutes of trading."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The muted start owed much to geopolitics, with US President Donald Trump abandoning plans to send envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Big corporate news was at a premium, while the market's early movers made up a mixed bag, with Sainsbury down 4% in early trading."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"7.06am: Ahead of the bell","level":3}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The FTSE 100 is seen opening flat on Monday with sentiment dented after US President Donald Trump abandoned plans at the weekend to send envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran, declaring on Truth Social that his negotiators were wasting time travelling."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Iran's Foreign Ministry said no meetings between Tehran and Washington were planned."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The week's main focus will be a trio of central bank decisions, with the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all meeting on rates."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Fed's Wednesday decision could be Jerome Powell's last as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over in May following the U.S. Department of Justice's decision on Friday to drop its criminal probe into Powell."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Both the ECB and the Bank of England are expected to hold rates on Thursday, though economists expect policymakers to keep the door open to increases later in the year."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":""}}]}

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