AJ Bell not expected to spring major surprises - analyst

Jefferies sees 23% upside for AJ Bell PLC (LSE:AJB) shares as the investment platform heads into the second half with market momentum, stronger brand traction and a potential longer-term boost from artificial intelligence.

The broker, which has repeated a ‘Buy’ rating and 625p price target, said AJ Bell’s upcoming first-half results were unlikely to spring major surprises, given that key flow, assets under management and spending details were already largely flagged at the second-quarter update.

“In short, we expect no big reaction on the day, but view AJB as well-placed. Buy,” Jefferies said.

Consensus is looking for £172 million of total revenue, £98 million of operating costs and £78 million of profit before tax, giving diluted earnings per share of 15.1p - with Jefferies own revenue estimate pitched at £173 million, and adjusted profit before tax forecast at £73 million.

The broker’s mark-to-market model points to an 8% market tailwind since March, driven by developed-market equities. Roughly half of that, it said, should already be in estimates, leaving a circa 4% tailwind to assets under management and administration and a potential 2% revenue impact for full-year 2026.